巴菲特致合伙人的信（1966年）
②投资情况进展

Trends in Our Business

A keen mind working diligently at interpreting the figures on page one could come to a lot of wrong conclusions.

投资情况进展
要是有谁很好奇，非常认真地解读第一页中的数字，他可能得出很多错误的结论。 

The results of the first ten years have absolutely no chance of being duplicated or even remotely approximated during the next decade. They may well be achieved by some hungry twenty-five year old working with $105,100 initial partnership capital and operating during a ten year business and market environment which is frequently conducive to successful implementation of his investment philosophy.

第一个十年的业绩，在下一个十年里，我们绝对没任何机会复制甚至接近。我们起步时，我才25岁，充满饥饿感，最初管理的资金只有105,100美元，在这十年的商业和市场环境里，我的投资理念如鱼得水。 

They will not be achieved by a better fed thirty-six year old working with our $54,065,345 current partnership capital who presently finds perhaps one-fifth to one-tenth as many really good ideas as previously to implement his investment philosophy.

十年之后，我现在已36岁，小有成就，合伙基金的规模达到54,065,345美元，虽然我的投资理念没变，但现在能找到的好机会只有以前的10%到20%。 

Buffett Associates. Ltd. (predecessor to Buffett Partnership. Ltd.) was founded on the west banks of the Missouri. May 5. 1956 by a hardy little band consisting of four family members, three close friends and $105,100. (I tried to find some brilliant flash of insight regarding our future or present conditions from my first page and a half annual letter of January, 1957 to insert as a quote here. However, someone evidently doctored my file copy so as to remove the perceptive remarks I must have made.)

巴菲特合伙基金于1956年5月5日成立于密西西比河西岸。最初的几个合伙人都是我最坚定的支持者，四位家人，三个好朋友，我们一共投资了105,100美元。（我找到了1957年1月的信，想从里面发现一两句闪光的话，能在这里引用一下。一定有人把我这封信给篡改了，要不里面的金句怎么没了？） 

At that time, and for some years subsequently, there were substantial numbers of securities selling at well below the "value to a private owner" criterion we utilized for selection of general market investments. We also experienced a flow of “workout” opportunities where the percentages were very much to our liking. The problem was always which, not what. Accordingly, we were able to own fifteen to twenty-five issues and be enthusiastic about the probabilities inherent in all holdings.

合伙基金成立之初以及随后的几年里，按照我们低估类的标准，遍地都是远远低于产业资本所能给予的估值的股票。套利机会也接连涌现，都是胜算非常大的机会。机会太多，我都挑不过来了。于是，我们买入15到25个品种，构建胜券在握的组合。 

In the last few years this situation has changed dramatically. We now find very few securities that are understandable to me, available in decent size, and which offer the expectation of investment performance meeting our yardstick of ten percentage points per annum superior to the Dow. In the last three years we have come up with only two or three new ideas a year that have had such an expectancy of superior performance. Fortunately, in some cases, we have made the most of them. However, in earlier years, a lesser effort produced literally dozens of comparable opportunities. It is difficult to be objective about the causes for such diminution of one's own productivity. Three factors that seem apparent are: (1) a somewhat changed market environment; (2) our increased size; and (3) substantially more competition.

过去几年里，环境彻底变了。现在我们基本找不到我能看懂、规模合适、而且符合每年收益率能领先道指10个百分点这个条件的投资机会。在过去三年里，我们每年只能找到两三个符合这个条件的新投资机会。好在我们充分利用了其中的一些机会。成立之初那几年，这样的机会，不怎么费劲就能找到一大把。自己发掘投资机会的能力降低了，很难做到客观地分析其中的原因。有三个原因是比较明显的：(1)市场环境变化了；(2)我们的规模增加了；(3)竞争更加激烈了。 

It is obvious that a business based upon only a trickle of fine ideas has poorer prospects than one based upon a steady flow of such ideas. To date the trickle has provided as much financial nourishment as the flow. This is true because there is only so much one can digest (million dollar ideas are of no great benefit to thousand dollar bank accounts - this was impressed on me in my early days) and because a limited number of ideas causes one to utilize those available more intensively. The latter factor has definitely been operative with us in recent years. However, a trickle has considerably more chance of drying up completely than a flow.

过去的好机会像奔腾不止的大河，现在的好机会像潺潺流淌的小溪，现在的前景与过去相比，当然不能同日而语。这几年，没了奔腾的大河，从潺潺溪流中，我们也同样汲取了养分，没少赚钱。为什么？原因有两点：首先，一个人的饭量是有限的（几百万的资金才能利用的投资机会，对只有几千块钱的人来说没多大用，我年轻时对这一点感触很深）。其次，好机会越少，投资的时候就越珍惜，越要把少量的机会用好。显然，这几年我们靠的就是第二个原因。虽说如此，与大河相比，小溪太容易干涸。 

These conditions will not cause me to attempt investment decisions outside my sphere of understanding (I don't go for the "If you can't lick 'em, join 'em” philosophy - my own leaning is toward "If you can't join ‘em, lick 'em”). We will not go into businesses where technology which is away over my head is crucial to the investment decision. I know about as much about semi-conductors or integrated circuits as I do of the mating habits of the chrzaszcz. (That's a Polish May bug, students - if you have trouble pronouncing it, rhyme it with thrzaszcz.)

我不会因为现在的情况变了，就去做我不懂的投资。（有人说“斗不过，就入伙”，这不是我的作风，我是“不入伙，斗到底”。）有些投资机会，一定要懂高科技，我对高科技一无所知，就不做这样的投资。我对半导体和集成电路一无所知，就像我对chrzaszcz的交配习性一无所知。（同学们，chrzaszcz是波兰的一种甲虫，要是你不会念这个词的话，请跟我读thrzaszcz。） 

Furthermore, we will not follow the frequently prevalent approach of investing in securities where an attempt to anticipate market action overrides business valuations. Such so-called "fashion" investing has frequently produced very substantial and quick profits in recent years (and currently as I write this in January). It represents an investment technique whose soundness I can neither affirm nor deny. It does not completely satisfy my intellect (or perhaps my prejudices), and most definitely does not fit my temperament. I will not invest my own money based upon such an approach hence, I will most certainly not do so with your money.

在证券投资中，预测市场走势，忽略商业估值的行为经常盛行。我们不会效仿。近年来，这种投资风气经常能迅速赚大钱，就在我写这封信的这个月就是如此。这个投资方法是否合理？我无法证实，也无法否认。我的理智（或许是我的偏见）不认可这种投资方法，我的秉性也不适合这种投资方法。我不会拿自己的钱这么投资，也绝对不会拿各位的钱这么投资。 

Finally, we will not seek out activity in investment operations, even if offering splendid profit expectations, where major human problems appear to have a substantial chance of developing.

最后，有的投资，很可能产生严重的人际冲突，就算利润前景很可观，我们也不会做。 

What I do promise you, as partners, is that I will work hard to maintain the trickle of ideas and try to get the most out of it that is possible – but if it should dry up completely, you will be informed honestly and promptly so that we may all take alternative action.

有一点，我可以向各位合伙人保证，我将努力保住眼前的潺潺溪流，尽最大可能利用有限的机会。然而，如果溪流可能完全干涸，我会在第一时间如实相告，以便我们另寻出路。 

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〔译文来源于梁孝永康所编《巴菲特致合伙人+致股东的信全集》〕

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