巴菲特致股东的信（1979年）⑤保险核保业务

Insurance Underwriting

We predicted last year that the combined underwriting ratio (see definition on page 36) for the insurance industry would “move up at least a few points, perhaps enough to throw the industry as a whole into an underwriting loss position”. That is just about the way it worked out. The industry underwriting ratio rose in 1979 over three points, from roughly 97.4% to 100.7%. We also said that we thought our underwriting performance relative to the industry would improve somewhat in 1979 and, again, things worked out as expected. Our own underwriting ratio actually decreased from 98.2% to 97.1%. Our forecast for 1980 is similar in one respect; again we feel that the industry’s performance will worsen by at least another few points. However, this year we have no reason to think that our performance relative to the industry will further improve. (Don’t worry - we won’t hold back to try to validate that forecast.)

保险核保业务

去年我们曾预估保险业的综合核保比率会上升几个百分点，甚至有可能使得整体保险业界发生核保损失的状况，结果正如我们所预期，综合核保比率从97.4%上升到100.7%。我们也预言1979年我们本身的核保表现会比同业平均好一点，事实证明我们确实从98.2%降至97.1%。展望1980年，第一项预期不变，那就是整个业界表现将如去年一般会持续恶化，但另一方面，我们却无法保证自己的表现能像去年一般优于同业。(但请大家放心，我们绝不会为了让本人的预测成真而故意松懈)。

Really extraordinary results were turned in by the portion of National Indemnity Company’s insurance operation run by Phil Liesche. Aided by Roland Miller in Underwriting and Bill Lyons in Claims, this section of the business produced an underwriting profit of $8.4 million on about $82 million of earned premiums. Only a very few companies in the entire industry produced a result comparable to this.

国民保险公司的PhilLiesche在核保部门Roland以及理赔部门BillLyons的协助下，再度缴出漂亮的成绩单，这个部门总计为我们创造840万美金的核保利益与8,200万美金的保费收入，这在同业间并不多见。

You will notice that earned premiums in this segment were down somewhat from those of 1978. We hear a great many insurance managers talk about being willing to reduce volume in order to underwrite profitably, but we find that very few actually do so. Phil Liesche is an exception: if business makes sense, he writes it; if it doesn’t, he rejects it. It is our policy not to lay off people because of the large fluctuations in work load produced by such voluntary volume changes. We would rather have some slack in the organization from time to time than keep everyone terribly busy writing business on which we are going to lose money. Jack Ringwalt, the founder of National Indemnity Company, instilled this underwriting discipline at the inception of the company, and Phil Liesche never has wavered in maintaining it. We believe such strong-mindedness is as rare as it is sound - and absolutely essential to the running of a first-class casualty insurance operation.

而或许你可能会发现这比去年的数字少了些，虽然我们常听到同业提及宁愿少接点保单也不愿亏钱作生意，然真正能贯策执行的并不多，但Phil却能真正作到，若保单合理他便签，否则一慨拒绝。我们不愿因为生意时好时坏而必须常常裁员，相对地，我们宁愿保持一点宽松的弹性，而不是让大家忙的要死，到头来却发现作的是亏本的生意，公司在JackRingwalt创办时便立下此一理念，而Phil从未放弃保持此一优良传统，我们也认为这是经营一家一流的产险公司必备的条件。

John Seward continues to make solid progress at Home and Automobile Insurance Company, in large part by significantly expanding the marketing scope of that company in general liability lines. These lines can be dynamite, but the record to date is excellent and, in John McGowan and Paul Springman, we have two cautious liability managers extending our capabilities.

负责家庭与汽车保险公司营运的John Seward持续有重大的进展，目前该公司大举进军一般责任险业务，这类的业务极具爆炸性，到目前为止的表现还算不错，我们有John MaGowan及Paul Springman等两位经理人来处理这类的新业务。

Our reinsurance division, led by George Young, continues to give us reasonably satisfactory overall results after allowing for investment income, but underwriting performance remains unsatisfactory. We think the reinsurance business is a very tough business that is likely to get much tougher. In fact, the influx of capital into the business and the resulting softer price levels for continually increasing exposures may well produce disastrous results for many entrants (of which they may be blissfully unaware until they are in over their heads; much reinsurance business involves an exceptionally “long tail”, a characteristic that allows catastrophic current loss experience to fester undetected for many years). It will be hard for us to be a whole lot smarter than the crowd and thus our reinsurance activity may decline substantially during the projected prolonged period of extraordinary competition.

由George Young领军的再保险部门，在将投资收益并入考量后，持续地给予我们满意的成绩，惟核保部门的绩效仍有待改进。事实上，未来产业的前景并不看好，由于外来资金持续大举投入这一行业，让竞争变得更为激烈，保费水准一降再降的结果，使得新进者勇于承担着极高风险而不自知，直到真正出事时早已为时已晚，而更不幸的是，这类业务的有效期间通常长达许多年，而我们自认并不比其它同业聪明到哪里去的情况下，我们只有选择暂时退出竞争激烈的市场观望，业务量下滑的结果将无可避免。

The Homestate operation was disappointing in 1979. Excellent results again were turned in by George Billings at Texas United Insurance Company, winner of the annual award for the low loss ratio among Homestate companies, and Floyd Taylor at Kansas Fire and Casualty Company. But several of the other operations, particularly Cornhusker Casualty Company, our first and largest Homestate operation and historically a winner, had poor underwriting results which were accentuated by data processing, administrative and personnel problems. We have made some major mistakes in reorganizing our data processing activities, and those mistakes will not be cured immediately or without cost. However, John Ringwalt has thrown himself into the task of getting things straightened out and we have confidence that he, aided by several strong people who recently have been brought aboard, will succeed.

Homestate1979的营运则令人感到失望，George Billings负责的德州联合保险再度以低损失率获得冠军，至于其它分支的营运，尤其是Cornhusker产险-Homestate最大的营运单位，过去一向是传统的赢家，去年不但核保绩效不佳，同时还有数据处理、行政以及人员方面的问题，我们在重新整理数据处理犯下了几件大错，而且未能及时改进，然而目前John Ringwalt已经投入火线全力导正错误，而我们也相信在几位新上任且颇具才干同仁的协助下，应该可以顺利达成任务。

Our performance in Worker’s Compensation was far, far better than we had any right to expect at the beginning of 1979. We had a very favorable climate in California for the achievement of good results but, beyond this, Milt Thornton at Cypress Insurance Company and Frank DeNardo at National Indemnity’s California Worker’s Compensation operation both performed in a simply outstanding manner. We have admitted - and with good reason - some mistakes on the acquisition front, but the Cypress purchase has turned out to be an absolute gem. Milt Thornton, like Phil Liesche, follows the policy of sticking with business that he understands and wants, without giving consideration to the impact on volume. As a result, he has an outstanding book of business and an exceptionally well functioning group of employees. Frank DeNardo has straightened out the mess he inherited in Los Angeles in a manner far beyond our expectations, producing savings measured in seven figures. He now can begin to build on a sound base.

我们劳工退休金的表现远优于1979年初可能的预期，加州今年的气候相当不错，这相当有利我们的营运，除此之外，赛普路斯的Milt Thornton以及国民保险加州劳工退休金部门的Frank Denardo的表现也很好，我们确实在购并面犯了些错误，但赛普路斯事后被证明是块宝，而Milt Thornton就像Phil Liesche一样，不以追求业务量为依归，坚持固守自己了解且熟悉的业务，这使得他拥有绝佳的营运记录以及运作良好的组织，另外Frank Denardo已经完全导正他在加州所接手的烂摊子，节省的成果甚至超乎我们预期达到七位数，有了好的开始，他现在可以进一步建立稳固的基础。

At yearend we entered the specialized area of surety reinsurance under the management of Chet Noble. At least initially, this operation will be relatively small since our policy will be to seek client companies who appreciate the need for a long term “partnership” relationship with their reinsurers. We are pleased by the quality of the insurers we have attracted, and hope to add several more of the best primary writers as our financial strength and stability become better known in the surety field.

去年年底在Chet Noble的管理下，我们正式进入保证再保险这类专门领域，初期这类的业务量不会太大，因为我们的策略是先与有意愿的客户建立起长期的伙伴关系，对于目前上门的保险客户素质，我们感到相当满意，也期望我们稳健的财务实力在保证业务界建立起名声后，能够吸引更多优质的保险公司加入。

The conventional wisdom is that insurance underwriting overall will be poor in 1980, but that rates will start to firm in a year or so, leading to a turn in the cycle some time in 1981. We disagree with this view. Present interest rates encourage the obtaining of business at underwriting loss levels formerly regarded as totally unacceptable. Managers decry the folly of underwriting at a loss to obtain investment income, but we believe that many will. Thus we expect that competition will create a new threshold of tolerance for underwriting losses, and that combined ratios will average higher in the future than in the past.

从前大家认为核保绩效通常会一年好、一年坏，1980年若差一点，那么1981年应该会好转。但我们却不这么认为，现在的低利率环境使得业者会倾向牺牲部份核保损失，再试图从投资收益上弥补回来，这在过去高利率的时代是不可能发生的。许多同业高喊杀价竞争愚不可及，但实际上跟进者却不少，因此我们判断，同业忍受承保损失的限度将较过去提高，导致竞争越加激烈，综合比率将因此提高。

To some extent, the day of reckoning has been postponed because of marked reduction in the frequency of auto accidents - probably brought on in major part by changes in driving habits induced by higher gas prices. In our opinion, if the habits hadn’t changed, auto insurance rates would have been very little higher and underwriting results would have been much worse. This dosage of serendipity won’t last indefinitely.

某种程度而言，这样的预测发生的时点将略微延后，主要是由于车祸事故发生率明显的下滑，可能的原因在于油价上涨导致驾驶习惯改变，我们的看法是多亏驾驶习惯发生改变，否则在保险费率没有提高的情况下，核保结果肯定会恶化，当然这种侥幸的意外情况肯定不会一直维持下去。

Our forecast is for an average combined ratio for the industry in the 105 area over the next five years. While we have a high degree of confidence that certain of our operations will do considerably better than average, it will be a challenge to us to operate below the industry figure. You can get a lot of surprises in insurance.

我们的估计是未来五年产险综合比率平均将会落在105左右，虽然我们有相当程度的信心，旗下部份的业务应该会比平均数好，但总的来说，还是一项艰难的挑战，保险业总是了充满意外。

Nevertheless, we believe that insurance can be a very good business. It tends to magnify, to an unusual degree, human managerial talent - or the lack of it. We have a number of managers whose talent is both proven and growing. (And, in addition, we have a very large indirect interest in two truly outstanding management groups through our investments in SAFECO and GEICO.) Thus we expect to do well in insurance over a period of years. However, the business has the potential for really terrible results in a single specific year. If accident frequency should turn around quickly in the auto field, we, along with others, are likely to experience such a year.

尽管如此，我们还是认为保险业是个相当不错的行业，它有加大(而且是极大幅度)经营能力好坏的特性，我们有一大群经理人，其能力不但经过考验且不断地增强当中，(此外透过SAFECO及盖可保险的间接投资，我们拥有两组非常杰出的经营团队)，因此我们预期这几年在保险业界将大有可为，当然一旦事故比率快速增加，我们以及其它同业也有可能面临某一个表现特别差的年度。