巴菲特致股东的信（1979年）⑥保险业投资

Insurance Investments

In recent years we have written at length in this section about our insurance equity investments. In 1979 they continued to perform well, largely because the underlying companies in which we have invested, in practically all cases, turned in outstanding performances. Retained earnings applicable to our insurance equity investments, not reported in our financial statements, continue to mount annually and, in aggregate, now come to a very substantial number. We have faith that the managements of these companies will utilize those retained earnings effectively and will translate a dollar retained by them into a dollar or more of subsequent market value for us. In part, our unrealized gains reflect this process.

保险业投资

最近这几年，我们花了相当大的篇幅谈到集团保险业的相关投资，主要是因为这些保险公司由于被投资公司缴出漂亮的成绩单而表现优异，这些被投资公司的保留盈余，虽然未能反应在我们的财务报表之上，但实际上却不断地累积，目前的金额已到了极为可观的地步，我们有信心这些管理阶层将会有效地运用保留下来的每一分钱，进一步创造出比原先更多的价值，从而转化为我们帐上未实现的资本利得。

Below we show the equity investments which had a yearend market value of over $5 million:

下表显示的是年末市值超过5百万美元的证券投资：

We currently believe that equity markets in 1980 are likely to evolve in a manner that will result in an underperformance by our portfolio for the first time in recent years. We very much like the companies in which we have major investments, and plan no changes to try to attune ourselves to the markets of a specific year.

目前我们认为1980年的股票市场将会是近几年来我们投资组合头一次的表现不如市场大盘，我们相当喜爱目前这些我们拥有主要持股的公司，同时在未来的几年内，也没有计划主动调整目前的投资组合。

Since we have covered our philosophy regarding equities extensively in recent annual reports, a more extended discussion of bond investments may be appropriate for this one, particularly in light of what has happened since yearend. An extraordinary amount of money has been lost by the insurance industry in the bond area - notwithstanding the accounting convention that allows insurance companies to carry their bond investments at amortized cost, regardless of impaired market value. Actually, that very accounting convention may have contributed in a major way to the losses; had management been forced to recognize market values, its attention might have been focused much earlier on the dangers of a very long-term bond contract.

过去几年的年报，谈的主要是股票投资哲学，现在我想应该换个话题，谈谈债券投资，尤其是去年底以来发生了那么多的事。整个保险业界，因投资债券而蒙受了相当庞大的损失，虽然依照会计原则，允许保险公司以摊销成本而非已严重受损的市场价值来记录其债券投资，事实上，这种会计方法反而是导致更大损失的元凶，因为当初若是保险公司被迫以市场价格来认列损失，那他们或许就会早一点注意到问题的严重性。

Ironically, many insurance companies have decided that a one-year auto policy is inappropriate during a time of inflation, and six-month policies have been brought in as replacements. “How,” say many of the insurance managers, “can we be expected to look forward twelve months and estimate such imponderables as hospital costs, auto parts prices, etc.?” But, having decided that one year is too long a period for which to set a fixed price for insurance in an inflationary world, they then have turned around, taken the proceeds from the sale of that six-month policy, and sold the money at a fixed price for thirty or forty years.

更讽刺的是，某些产物保险公司有鉴于通货膨胀高涨，决定将原本一年期的保单缩短为半年为期，因为他们认为实在是无法去衡量未来的十二个月内，医疗成本、汽车零件价格会是多少?然而荒谬的是，他们在收到保费之后，一转身却将刚收到的保费，拿去购买以三、四十年为期的固定利率债券。

The very long-term bond contract has been the last major fixed price contract of extended duration still regularly initiated in an inflation-ridden world. The buyer of money to be used between 1980 and 2020 has been able to obtain a firm price now for each year of its use while the buyer of auto insurance, medical services, newsprint, office space - or just about any other product or service - would be greeted with laughter if he were to request a firm price now to apply through 1985. For in virtually all other areas of commerce, parties to long-term contracts now either index prices in some manner, or insist on the right to review the situation every year or so.

长期的债券是目前通货膨胀高涨的环境下唯一还存在的长期固定价格合约，合约的买家可以轻易地锁定1980年到2020年，每年使用这笔钱固定必须支付的价格，相较之下，其它诸如汽车保险、医疗服务、新闻信息、办公空间或是其它任何产品服务，如果他要求在未来五年内给予一个固定报价时，肯定会被别人笑掉大牙，在其它商业领域中，只要是签订长期，合约的任何一方，通常都会要求适时反应价格或是坚持每年必须重新审议合约。

A cultural lag has prevailed in the bond area. The buyers(borrowers) and middlemen (underwriters) of money hardly could be expected to raise the question of whether it all made sense, and the sellers (lenders) slept through an economic and contractual revolution.

然而在债券的领域却存在有文化落差，不必指望买家(借款人)以及中介(承销商)会提出合理性的怀疑，至于卖家(债权人)即便历经经济与合约变革，却依旧浑然不觉。

For the last few years our insurance companies have not been a net purchaser of any straight long-term bonds (those without conversion rights or other attributes offering profit possibilities). There have been some purchases in the straight bond area, of course, but they have been offset by sales or maturities. Even prior to this period, we never would buy thirty or forty-year bonds; instead we tried to concentrate in the straight bond area on shorter issues with sinking funds and on issues that seemed relatively undervalued because of bond market inefficiencies.

最近这几年来，我们的保险公司几乎未增加一般长期债券方面的部位(即不含转换权或可提供额外获利可能性的债券)，即使有买进也是为了弥补先前到期或出售的部位，而在此之前，我们也从未投资那些长达三、四十年的债券，顶多是那些较短期且备有偿债基金或是因市场缺乏效率而使得价格被低估的债券。

However, the mild degree of caution that we exercised was an improper response to the world unfolding about us. You do not adequately protect yourself by being half awake while others are sleeping. It was a mistake to buy fifteen-year bonds, and yet we did; we made an even more serious mistake in not selling them (at losses, if necessary) when our present views began to crystallize. (Naturally, those views are much clearer and definite in retrospect; it would be fair for you to ask why we weren’t writing about this subject last year.)

然而，虽然较之同业我们稍具警觉心，却仍是不够的。“虽然半梦半醒，比起熟睡要好得多，但却不能保证你不会被熊吃掉。”若说买进四十年期的债券是个大错，那么投资十五年期的也好不到那里去，很遗憾的是，我们属于后者，更惨的是，我们未能适时地忍痛卖掉，而眼睁睁的看着它们的价值日益缩水。(当然，事后回想起来，会觉得真是笨得可以，而或许你会认为要是去年我就看透这点就好了)。

Of course, we must hold significant amounts of bonds or other fixed dollar obligations in conjunction with our insurance operations. In the last several years our net fixed dollar commitments have been limited to the purchase of convertible bonds. We believe that the conversion options obtained, in effect, give that portion of the bond portfolio a far shorter average life than implied by the maturity terms of the issues(i.e., at an appropriate time of our choosing, we can terminate the bond contract by conversion into stock).

当然基于保险营运所需，我们必须持有大量的债券或固定收益部位，但最近几年我们在固定收益方面的投资多属具转换权的债券，也由于具有转换权，使得这些债券实际发行的时间比其票面的到期日要短得多，因为在到期前，依合约规定我们可以要求转换为股份。

This bond policy has given us significantly lower unrealized losses than those experienced by the great majority of property and casualty insurance companies. We also have been helped by our strong preference for equities in recent years that has kept our overall bond segment relatively low. Nevertheless, we are taking our lumps in bonds and feel that, in a sense, our mistakes should be viewed less charitably than the mistakes of those who went about their business unmindful of the developing problems.

这样的规定使得我们实际的损失要比一些产险或意外险的同业来的轻了许多。另外由于对于股票投资的特别偏好，也让我们在债券投资的部位相对偏低。尽管如此，在债券方面我们还是跌了一跤，而且比起那些从来不管问题发生的同业，我们犯得错实在是不应该。

Harking back to our textile experience, we should have realized the futility of trying to be very clever (via sinking funds and other special type issues) in an area where the tide was running heavily against us.

回顾我们在纺织业的经验，我们早该知道逆流而上(买进备有偿债基金或其它特种债券)的结果肯定是徒劳无功。

We have severe doubts as to whether a very long-term fixed- interest bond, denominated in dollars, remains an appropriate business contract in a world where the value of dollars seems almost certain to shrink by the day. Those dollars, as well as paper creations of other governments, simply may have too many structural weaknesses to appropriately serve as a unit of long term commercial reference. If so, really long bonds may turn out to be obsolete instruments and insurers who have bought those maturities of 2010 or 2020 could have major and continuing problems on their hands. We, likewise, will be unhappy with our fifteen-year bonds and will annually pay a price in terms of earning power that reflects that mistake.

我们实在很怀疑，为什么长期固定利率的债券还能在市场上存在，当我们确信美金的购买力几乎每天都在变小，这些美元，也包含政府发行的任何货币，实在是很难作为长期的商业指针，同理长期的债券终将会沦为壁纸，而那些买进2010年或2020年才到期债券将会变成投资人手中的烫手山芋，而我们同样地也会对这些十五年期的债券，而且每年都必须为这个错误付出购买力下滑的代价。

Some of our convertible bonds appear exceptionally attractive to us, and have the same sort of earnings retention factor (applicable to the stock into which they may be converted) that prevails in our conventional equity portfolio. We expect to make money in these bonds (we already have, in a few cases) and have hopes that our profits in this area may offset losses in straight bonds.

在这其中，部份的可转换债券(经由潜在的转换权利)，有着跟我们股票投资组合一样的吸引力，我们预计可从中赚不少钱(而事实上，有些个案已开始获利)，同时亦期盼这部份的获利能弥补我们在一般债券上的损失。

And, of course, there is the possibility that our present analysis is much too negative. The chances for very low rates of inflation are not nil. Inflation is man-made; perhaps it can be man-mastered. The threat which alarms us may also alarm legislators and other powerful groups, prompting some appropriate response.

当然，我们对债券的看法也有可能保守了些，通膨降低的机率也不是没有，毕竟通货膨涨多是人为因素所造成的，也或许有一天人们真能有效地控制它，立法当局及有力团体应该也已注意到这个警讯，进而采取必要的措施。

Furthermore, present interest rates incorporate much higher inflation projections than those of a year or two ago. Such rates may prove adequate or more than adequate to protect bond buyers. We even may miss large profits from a major rebound in bond prices. However, our unwillingness to fix a price now for a pound of See’s candy or a yard of Berkshire cloth to be delivered in 2010 or 2020 makes us equally unwilling to buy bonds which set a price on money now for use in those years. Overall, we opt for Polonius (slightly restated): “Neither a short-term borrower nor a long-term lender be.”

此外，现今的利率已反应较高的预期通货膨胀率，使得新发行的债券对投资者较有保障，这甚至将使我们可能错过债券价格反弹而获利的机会，然而就像我们不愿意以一个固定的价格预先出售公元2010年或2020年一磅喜诗糖果或一尺伯克希尔生产的布料一样，我们也不愿意以一个固定的价格预先出售我们未来四十年金钱的使用权，我们倾向莎士比亚笔下的Polonius的看法(稍微经过改编):“不要作一个短期的借钱者，也不要当长期的借款人”。