巴菲特致股东的信（1986年）④保险业务

Insurance Operations

We present our usual table of industry figures, expanded this year to include data about incurred losses and the GNP inflation index. The contrast in 1986 between the growth in premiums and growth in incurred losses will show you why underwriting results for the year improved materially:

保险业务

下表是我们固定提供的保险业统计数字，今年起多加了发生损失与 GNP 通膨指数两项，保费成长与损失比率与 1986 年差异，可用来解释为何整年度的承保表现能够大幅改善的原因。

The combined ratio represents total insurance costs (losses incurred plus expenses) compared to revenue from premiums: a ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit, and one above 100 indicates a loss. When the investment income that an insurer earns from holding on to policyholders’ funds ("the float") is taken into account, a combined ratio in the 107-112 range typically produces an overall break-even result, exclusive of earnings on the funds provided by shareholders.

综合比率代表保险总成本(发生损失加上费用)占保费收入的比例，若比率低于一百，表示承保有收益，反之则会有损失，若将保险公司从保户那边收到的保费(又称浮存金)，运用在投资所赚取的收益列入考虑后(扣除股东权益部分)，比率在 107-112 间会是损益平衡点。

The math of the insurance business, encapsulated by the table, is not very complicated. In years when the industry’s annual gain in revenues (premiums) pokes along at 4% or 5%, underwriting losses are sure to mount. This is not because auto accidents, fires, windstorms and the like are occurring more frequently, nor has it lately been the fault of general inflation. Today, social and judicial inflation are the major culprits; the cost of entering a courtroom has simply ballooned. Part of the jump in cost arises from skyrocketing verdicts, and part from the tendency of judges and juries to expand the coverage of insurance policies beyond that contemplated by the insurer when the policies were written. Seeing no let-up in either trend, we continue to believe that the industry’s revenues must grow at close to 10% annually for it to just hold its own in terms of profitability, even though general inflation may be running only 2% - 4%.

保险业务经营的逻辑，若用以下列简表来说明，其实一点都不复杂，当保费收入年增长率只能在 4%到 5%游移时，承保损失一定会增加，这不是因为意外、火灾、暴风等意外灾害发生更频繁，也不是因为通货膨胀的关系，主要的祸首在于社会与司法成本的膨胀，一方面是因为司法诉讼案件大幅增加，一方面是因为法官与陪审团倾向超越原先保单上所订的条款，扩大保险理赔的范围，若这两种情况在未来没有好转，则可以预见的是，保费收入年增长必须达到 10%以上才有可能损益两平，即使目前一般通货膨胀的水准维持在 2%到 4%之间也一样。

In 1986, as noted, the industry’s premium volume soared even faster than loss costs. Consequently, the underwriting loss of the industry fell dramatically. In last year’s report we predicted this sharp improvement but also predicted that prosperity would be fleeting. Alas, this second prediction is already proving accurate. The rate of gain in the industry’s premium volume has slowed significantly (from an estimated 27.1% in 1986’s first quarter, to 23.5% in the second, to 21.8% in the third, to 18.7% in the fourth), and we expect further slowing in 1987. Indeed, the rate of gain may well fall below my 10% "equilibrium" figure by the third quarter.

如表上所示，保险业保费收入增长的速度甚至高于理赔损失增加的速度，因此承保损失大幅下降，去年的年报我们就已预先报告可能会有这种情形发生，同时还判断这样的荣景只是短暂的，很不幸的再一次我们一语中的，今年保费增长的速度已大幅减缓，从第一季的 27.1%一路下滑到第四季的 18.7%，而且我们预期还会进一步下滑，最后很有可能会落到 10%的损益两平点之下。

Nevertheless, underwriting results in 1987, assuming they are not dragged down by a major natural catastrophe, will again improve materially because price increases are recognized in revenues on a lagged basis. In effect, the good news in earnings follows the good news in prices by six to twelve months. But the improving trend in earnings will probably end by late 1988 or early 1989. Thereafter the industry is likely to head south in a hurry.

但尽管如此，只要 1987 年没有发生什么重大的灾难，由于保费调整的递延性，承保结果还是能够改善，通常在保费调整的半年到一年后，效果会反应到公司的收益之上，但好景通常不易维持，过不了多久一切又会回到原点。

Pricing behavior in the insurance industry continues to be exactly what can be expected in a commodity-type business. Only under shortage conditions are high profits achieved, and such conditions don’t last long. When the profit sun begins to shine, long-established insurers shower investors with new shares in order to build capital. In addition, newly-formed insurers rush to sell shares at the advantageous prices available in the new-issue market (prices advantageous, that is, to the insiders promoting the company but rarely to the new shareholders). These moves guarantee future trouble: capacity soars, competitive juices flow, and prices fade.

保险商品的定价行为与一般商品的定价模式几乎一模一样，唯有在供给短缺时价格才会上来，但偏偏这种光景维持不了多久，当获利旭日东升时，马上就有人会进来泼冷水，增加投入资金抢食大饼(老牌保险公司会向投资者大量投放新股，以增加资本。此外，新成立的保险公司，急于以新发行市场的有利价格出售股票)，结果，当然会埋下不少后遗症：供给增加，代表价格下跌，跟着获利剧减。

It’s interesting to observe insurance leaders beseech their colleagues to behave in a more "statesmanlike" manner when pricing policies. "Why," they ask, "can’t we learn from history, even out the peaks and valleys, and consistently price to make reasonable profits?" What they wish, of course, is pricing that resembles, say, that of The Wall Street journal, whose prices are ample to start with and rise consistently each year.

当保险业龙头在要求他们的同业在定价时要维持同行之谊，我们可以观察到一个有趣的现象，他们会问为什么我们不能从历史经验中学到教训，不管景气低潮或高峰，都能够合理的定价以维持适当的获利呢？他们当然希望保险费能够像华尔街日报一样，一开始定价就很高，同时又能够每年持续稳定的调涨价格。

Such calls for improved behavior have all of the efficacy of those made by a Nebraska corn grower asking his fellow growers, worldwide, to market their corn with more statesmanship. What’s needed is not more statesmen, but less corn. By raising large amounts of capital in the last two years, the insurance industry has, to continue our metaphor, vastly expanded its plantings of corn. The resulting increase in "crop" - i.e., the proliferation of insurance capacity - will have the same effect on prices and profits that surplus crops have had since time immemorial.

但这种诉求得到的效果，就像内布拉斯加州种植玉米的农夫，要求全世界其它种植玉米的农夫一起遵守道德规范一样有限，事实上道德诉求的效果极其有限，重点是如何让玉米的产量变少，最近两年来保险同业从资本市场上所募集的资金，导致保险能力激增，就好象是新进耕种的玉米田一样，结果是更多更多的玉米产量，只会使市场价格进一步滑落。

Our own insurance operation did well in 1986 and is also likely to do well in 1987. We have benefited significantly from industry conditions. But much of our prosperity arises from the efforts and ability of Mike Goldberg, manager of all insurance operations.

我们自己本身的保险业务在 1986 年的表现还算不错，展望明年一样乐观，虽然市场的状况让我们获益不少，但真正要感谢的却是旗下经理人优异的能力与表现。

Our combined ratio (on a statutory basis and excluding structured settlements and financial reinsurance) fell from 111 in 1985 to 103 in 1986. In addition, our premium growth has been exceptional: although final figures aren’t available, I believe that over the past two years we were the fastest growing company among the country’s top 100 insurers. Some of our growth, it is true, came from our large quota-share contract with Fireman’s Fund, described in last year’s report and updated in Charlie’s letter on page 54. But even if the premiums from that contract are excluded from the calculation, we probably still ranked first in growth.

我们的综合比率从 1985 年的 111 减少到 1986 年的103，此外我们的保费增长亦是出色，虽然最后的数字现在还无从得知，但我确信我们是前 100 强保险公司中成长最快的，诚然有一部分的成长来自于我们与消防人员退休基金的巨额合约，但即使扣除这部分，我们仍能维持第一。

Interestingly, we were the slowest-growing large insurer in the years immediately preceding 1985. In fact, we shrank - and we will do so again from time to time in the future. Our large swings in volume do not mean that we come and go from the insurance marketplace. Indeed, we are its most steadfast participant, always standing ready, at prices we believe adequate, to write a wide variety of high-limit coverages. The swings in our volume arise instead from the here-today, gone-tomorrow behavior of other insurers. When most insurers are "gone," because their capital is inadequate or they have been frightened by losses, insureds rush to us and find us ready to do business. But when hordes of insurers are "here," and are slashing prices far below expectable costs, many customers naturally leave us in order to take advantage of the bargains temporarily being offered by our competition.

有趣的是在 1985 年我们是所有保险业者中成长最慢的一家，事实上我们是不增反减，而只要市场情况不佳时，我们仍会维持这样的做法，我们保费收入忽上忽下并不代表我们在这个市场来来去去，事实上我们是这个市场最稳定的参与者，随时作好准备，只要价格合理，我们愿意不计上限签下任何高额的保单，不像其它业者“今天还在，明天就不干了”。所以当其它同业因资金不足或慑于巨大的损失退出市场时，保户会大量涌向我们，且会发现我们早已作好准备，反之当所有业者抢进市场，大幅杀价甚至低于合理成本时，客户又会受到便宜的价格所吸引，离开我们投入竞争对手的怀抱。

Our firmness on prices works no hardship on the consumer: he is being bombarded by attractively priced insurance offers at those times when we are doing little business. And it works no hardship on our employees: we don’t engage in layoffs when we experience a cyclical slowdown at one of our generally-profitable insurance operations. This no-layoff practice is in our self-interest. Employees who fear that large layoffs will accompany sizable reductions in premium volume will understandably produce scads of business through thick and thin (mostly thin).

我们对于价格的坚持，对客户来说一点困扰也没有，当他发现有更便宜的价格时，随时可以离去，同样地对我们的员工也不会造成困扰，我们不会因为景气循环一时的低潮就大幅裁员。我们奉行不裁员的政策，事实上这也是为了公司好，否则担心业务量减少而被裁员的员工，可能会想尽办法不顾一切地创造大量无效业务。

The trends in National Indemnity’s traditional business - the writing of commercial auto and general liability policies through general agents - suggest how gun-shy other insurers became for a while and how brave they are now getting. In the last quarter of 1984, NICO’s monthly volume averaged $5 million, about what it had been running for several years. By the first quarter of 1986, monthly volume had climbed to about $35 million. In recent months, a sharp decline has set in. Monthly volume is currently about $20 million and will continue to fall as new competitors surface and prices are cut. Ironically, the managers of certain major new competitors are the very same managers that just a few years ago bankrupted insurers that were our old competitors. Through state-mandated guaranty funds, we must pay some of the losses these managers left unpaid, and now we find them writing the same sort of business under a new name. C’est la guerre.

这在国民保险公司所从事的汽车保险与一般责任保险最可以看出，同业是如何一会儿贪生怕死，一会儿又勇往前进。在 1984 年的最后一季，该公司平均月保费收入是 500 万美元，大约维持在正常的水准，但到了 1986年的第一季，却大幅攀升至 3,500 万美元，之后又很快地减少到每月 2,000 万元的水准。相信只要竞争者持续加入市场，并杀价竞争，该公司的业务量还会继续减少。讽刺的是，部分新成立的保险公司的经理人，正是几年前跟我们竞争并破产倒闭的保险公司那批原班人马。不可思议的是我们竟然还要通过政府强制的担保基金机制，来分摊他们部分的损失。现在我们发现他们用一个新名字承保了同样的业务，这简直是战争贩子。

The business we call "large risks" expanded significantly during 1986, and will be important to us in the future. In this operation, we regularly write policies with annual premiums of $1 - $3 million, or even higher. This business will necessarily be highly volatile - both in volume and profitability - but our premier capital position and willingness to write large net lines make us a very strong force in the market when prices are right. On the other hand, our structured settlement business has become near-dormant because present prices make no sense to us.

这种我们称之为巨灾再保险的险种(超级猫)在 1986 年大幅成长，且在未来也会扮演相当重要的角色，通常一次所收取的保费就可能超过 100-300 万美元，有的甚至还更高，当然这项业务会高度波动，不管是保费收入或是承保获利，但我们雄厚的财务实力与高度的承保意愿(只要价格合理)使我们在市场上相当有竞争力。另一方面，我们在结构清偿业务则因为现在的价格不理想而接近停摆。

The 1986 loss reserve development of our insurance group is chronicled on page 46. The figures show the amount of error in our yearend 1985 liabilities that a year of settlements and further evaluation has revealed. As you can see, what I told you last year about our loss liabilities was far from true - and that makes three years in a row of error. If the physiological rules that applied to Pinocchio were to apply to me, my nose would now draw crowds.

1986 年损失准备的变动详附表，数字显示我们在 1985 年底所犯的估计错误，在今年已渐渐浮现，就像去年我提醒各位的，我们所提的负债准备与事实有很大的出入，而造成连续三年一连串的错误，若照木偶奇遇记的标准，我的鼻子可能早已能够吸引众人的目光。

When insurance executives belatedly establish proper reserves, they often speak of "reserve strengthening," a term that has a rather noble ring to it. They almost make it sound as if they are adding extra layers of strength to an already-solid balance sheet. That’s not the case: instead the term is a euphemism for what should more properly be called "correction of previous untruths" (albeit non-intentional ones).

当保险公司主管事后补提适当的损失准备，他们通常会解释成损失准备”加强”，以冠上合理的说法，理直气壮地好象的是真要在已经健全的财务报表上再多加一层保障，事实上并非如此，这只是修正以前所犯错误的婉转说法而已(虽然可能是无心的)。

We made a special effort at the end of 1986 to reserve accurately. However, we tried just as hard at the end of 1985. Only time will tell whether we have finally succeeded in correctly estimating our insurance liabilities.

在 1986 年我们特别花了一番功夫在这上面做调整，但只有时间能告诉我们先前所作的损失准备预测是否正确。

Despite the difficulties we have had in reserving and the commodity economics of the industry, we expect our insurance business to both grow and make significant amounts of money - but progress will be distinctly irregular and there will be major unpleasant surprises from time to time. It’s a treacherous business and a wary attitude is essential. We must heed Woody Allen: "While the lamb may lie down with the lion, the lamb shouldn’t count on getting a whole lot of sleep."

而尽管在预测损失与产品营销上我们遭遇极大的挑战，我们仍乐观地预期我们的业务量能够成长并获取不少利润，只是前进的步伐可能会不太规则，甚至有时还会出现令人不太愉快的结果发生，这是一个变化多端的行业，所以必须更加小心谨慎，我们时时谨记伍迪艾伦所讲的，一只羊大可以躺在狮子的旁边，但你千万不要妄想好好地睡一觉。

In our insurance operations we have an advantage in attitude, we have an advantage in capital, and we are developing an advantage in personnel. Additionally, I like to think we have some long-term edge in investing the float developed from policyholder funds. The nature of the business suggests that we will need all of these advantages in order to prosper.

在保险业我们拥有的优势是我们的心态与资本，同时在人员素质上也渐入佳境，此外，利用收得保费产生的浮存金进行投资方面，更是我们竞争的长期优势。在这个产业也唯有多方条件配合，才有机会成功。

* * *

GEICO Corporation, 41% owned by Berkshire, had an outstanding year in 1986. Industrywide, underwriting experience in personal lines did not improve nearly as much as it did in commercial lines. But GEICO, writing personal lines almost exclusively, improved its combined ratio to 96.9 and recorded a 16% gain in premium volume. GEICO also continued to repurchase its own shares and ended the year with 5.5% fewer shares outstanding than it had at the start of the year. Our share of GEICO’s premium volume is over $500 million, close to double that of only three years ago. GEICO’s book of business is one of the best in the world of insurance, far better indeed than Berkshire’s own book.

* * *

由伯克希尔持有 41%股权的 GEICO 保险公司，在 1986 年表现相当突出，就整个产业而言，个人险种的承保表现一般来说不如商业险种，但以个人险种为主要业务的 GEICO 保险其综合比率却降低到 96.9，同时保费收入亦增长了 16%，另外该公司也持续买回自家公司的股份，总计一年下来流通在外的股份减少了 5.5%，我们依投资比例所分得的保费收入已超过五亿美元，大约较三年前增加一倍。GEICO 保险的帐目是全世界保险公司中最好的，甚至比伯克希尔本身都还要好。

The most important ingredient in GEICO’s success is rock-bottom operating costs, which set the company apart from literally hundreds of competitors that offer auto insurance. The total of GEICO’s underwriting expense and loss adjustment expense in 1986 was only 23.5% of premiums. Many major companies show percentages 15 points higher than that. Even such huge direct writers as Allstate and State Farm incur appreciably higher costs than does GEICO.

GEICO 保险之所以能够成功的重要因素，在于该公司从头到脚彻底地精简营运成本，使得它把其它所有车险公司远远拋在脑后，该公司去年的成本费用和损失调整费用占保费收入的比例只有 23.5%，许多大公司的比例甚至比 GEICO 保险还要多出 15%，即使是像好事达保险(Allstate)与州立农业保险(StateFarm)等车险直销业者成本也比 GEICO 保险高出许多。

The difference between GEICO’s costs and those of its competitors is a kind of moat that protects a valuable and much-sought-after business castle. No one understands this moat-around-the-castle concept better than Bill Snyder, Chairman of GEICO. He continually widens the moat by driving down costs still more, thereby defending and strengthening the economic franchise. Between 1985 and 1986, GEICO’s total expense ratio dropped from 24.1% to the 23.5% mentioned earlier and, under Bill’s leadership, the ratio is almost certain to drop further. If it does - and if GEICO maintains its service and underwriting standards - the company’s future will be brilliant indeed.

若说 GEICO 保险是一座价值不菲且众所仰望的商业城堡，那么其与同业间的成本与费用差异就是它的护城河，没有人比 Bill，也就是 GEICO 保险的主席，更懂得如何去保护这座城堡，靠着持续降低成本开支，他不断地将这个护城河加大，使得这城堡更加稳固，过去两年间，GEICO 保险创造了 23.5%超低成本率，下降 0.6%。展望未来，这项比率仍将持续下降，若能够同时再兼顾产品品质与客户服务的话，这家公司的前途将无可限量。

The second stage of the GEICO rocket is fueled by Lou Simpson, Vice Chairman, who has run the company’s investments since late 1979. Indeed, it’s a little embarrassing for me, the fellow responsible for investments at Berkshire, to chronicle Lou’s performance at GEICO. Only my ownership of a controlling block of Berkshire stock makes me secure enough to give you the following figures, comparing the overall return of the equity portfolio at GEICO to that of the Standard & Poor’s 500:

另外 GEICO 保险这一飞冲天的火箭，其第二阶段动力由负责投资部门的副主席路易·辛普森(Lou Simpson)提供，比起辛普森于 1979 年接掌该公司投资部门后的绩效，身为母公司伯克希尔投资主管的我，实在觉得有点汗颜，而也因为我们拥有这家公司大部分的股权，使我在向各位报告以下数字时，能够稍微心安理得一些。

These are not only terrific figures but, fully as important, they have been achieved in the right way. Lou has consistently invested in undervalued common stocks that, individually, were unlikely to present him with a permanent loss and that, collectively, were close to risk-free.

必须再次强调的是以上的数字不但是漂亮极了，更由于其稳定成长的态势，辛普森能够不断地找到价值被低估的股票加以投资，所以风险相对很低，也很少会产生损失.

In sum, GEICO is an exceptional business run by exceptional managers. We are fortunate to be associated with them.

总而言之 GEICO 保险是一家由好的经理人经营的好公司，我们很荣幸能与他们一起共事。