巴菲特致股东的信(1994年)
⑥透视收益


"Look-Through" Earnings

     In past reports, we've discussed look-through earnings, which we believe more accurately portray the earnings of Berkshire than does our GAAP result. As we calculate them, look-through earnings consist of: (1) the operating earnings reported in the previous section, plus; (2) the retained operating earnings of major investees that, under GAAP accounting, are not reflected in our profits, less; (3) an allowance for the tax that would be paid by Berkshire if these retained earnings of investees had instead been distributed to us. The "operating earnings" of which we speak here exclude capital gains, special accounting items and major restructuring charges.

透视收益

过去的报告中我们曾经讨论过透视收益,我们认为它比 GAAP 的数字更能反应伯克希尔真实的盈利状况,其主要的组成份子有(1)前段报告中的报告收益,加上(2)按 GAAP 会计原则未反映在我们利润中的主要被投资公司的保留收益,减去(3)若这些未反映的收益分配给我们时,将要支付的所得税估计值。在这里我们所谓的经营收益系扣除资本利得、特别会计调整与企业重组等支出。

     If our intrinsic value is to grow at our target rate of 15%, our look-through earnings, over time, must also increase at about that pace. When I first explained this concept a few years back, I told you that meeting this 15% goal would require us to generate look-through earnings of about $1.8 billion by 2000. Because we've since issued about 3% more shares, that figure has grown to $1.85 billion.

长期而言,如果我们的内在价值想要以每年 15%的幅度来成长的话,那么透视收益每年也必须以这个幅度来成长。几年前我第一次提到这个概念时曾表示,若要实现 15%的目标,我们需要在 2000 年之前完成 18 亿美元以上的透视收益成长。而由于 1993 年我们又发行了约 3%新股购买 Dexter,所以现在的门槛提高到 18.5 亿美元。

     We are now modestly ahead of schedule in meeting our goal, but to a significant degree that is because our super-cat insurance business has recently delivered earnings far above trend-line expectancy (an outcome I will discuss in the next section). Giving due weight to that abnormality, we still expect to hit our target but that, of course, is no sure thing.

我们现在稍微超越目标进度,这在很大程度上是因为我们的巨灾再保险近年来的表现远超预期(下一节再详加叙述),扣除这项反常部分,我们依旧符合当初预期,但这仍不能保证一定实现目标。

     The following table shows how we calculate look-through earnings, though I warn you that the figures are necessarily very rough. (The dividends paid to us by these investees have been included in the operating earnings itemized on page 12, mostly under "Insurance Group: Net Investment Income.")

下表显示了我们是如何计算透视收益的,不过我还是要提醒各位这些数字有点粗糙,被投资公司所分配的股利收入包含在保险业务的净投资收益项下。

     (1) Does not include shares allocable to the minority interest at Wesco
     (2) Calculated on average ownership for the year
     (3) Excludes realized capital gains, which have been both recurring and significant
     (4) The tax rate used is 14%, which is the rate Berkshire pays on the dividends it receives

(a)已扣除 wesco 的少数股权;
(b)以年平均持有股权比例计算;
(c)扣除重复发生且金额大的已实现资本利得;
(d)通用的税率为 14%,这里是伯克希尔收到现金股利时的平均税率。

〔译文源于芒格书院整理的巴菲特致股东的信〕

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